Provident Principles and Practices
© David Edwards, 2008
© David Edwards, 2008
PRINCIPLES: The Church wants us to understand pandemics and become prepared for them. Resources that we can use to prepare for pandemics are found at the ProvidentLiving Web site.
A pandemic is a scourge or pestilence involving the rapid spread of a potentially deadly, easily communicable disease throughout the world. Pandemics occur on average about three times per century. A relatively serious pandemic took place in 1918-1920. It is estimated to have killed 20 to 100 million people worldwide, with a worldwide case fatality rate of about 2.5%.
Scientists say that the next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when.
The greatest concern now is about pandemic influenza, a viral disease. Most influenza viruses now circulating the globe are relatively mild, having mutated over time to have become less virulent. Ordinary influenza kills some infants, some elderly, and some immunocompromised persons, but in most cases, it is not fatal. At various times in history, however, influenza viruses have mutated into highly lethal forms that have for periods swept across the earth, killing many of their victims.
A current virus of concern, H5N1, affects mostly birds. The disease caused is often referred to as avian or bird flu. H5N1 occasionally also attacks people, causing a very virulent form of influenza. Influenza caused by this virus kills about 60% of people contracting it. Half of those dying are otherwise healthy young adults or children. Find more information at http://www.pandemicflu.gov/.
So far, H5N1 has not mutated to the point where human-to-human contagion is easily sustained. However, a number of cases are documented in which individuals have transmitted disease to caretakers or family members. Again, the current case fatality rate is about 60%. Scientists believe that a high likelihood exists that the virus causing this disease will mutate at some point and become easily transmissible, causing a pandemic that will cause untold misery throughout the world.
No one knows how high a pandemic case fatality rate will be. Scientists expect it to be much less than 60%. In nearly all simulations, they are using values of 2.5% or less. But these are just guesses.
Tamiflu and other antiviral drugs are not expected to be able to stop the next pandemic. These drugs may reduce the impact of the disease, but they will not cure it or prevent it. Only a small fraction of the population will have access to antivirals. Creating an effective vaccine can be done only after a virus mutates and a pandemic starts. Vaccine development may take up to six months. By that time, many millions may have died. Access to any vaccine will be limited. Social chaos is predicted.
PRACTICES: Several things can be done, but only if proper preparations are made. These involve personal hygiene, social distancing (e.g., keeping apart from people; or sequestering within homes), isolation of the ill, and 10-day quarantining of apparently healthy people exposed to potentially ill people before the apparently healthy people can associate again with others. Eight fact sheets from the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints can help us plan and prepare:
http://providentliving.org/pfw/multimedia/files/pfw/pdf/113475_PandemicPlanningPDFsCombined_pdf.pdf
A pandemic is a scourge or pestilence involving the rapid spread of a potentially deadly, easily communicable disease throughout the world. Pandemics occur on average about three times per century. A relatively serious pandemic took place in 1918-1920. It is estimated to have killed 20 to 100 million people worldwide, with a worldwide case fatality rate of about 2.5%.Scientists say that the next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when.
The greatest concern now is about pandemic influenza, a viral disease. Most influenza viruses now circulating the globe are relatively mild, having mutated over time to have become less virulent. Ordinary influenza kills some infants, some elderly, and some immunocompromised persons, but in most cases, it is not fatal. At various times in history, however, influenza viruses have mutated into highly lethal forms that have for periods swept across the earth, killing many of their victims.
A current virus of concern, H5N1, affects mostly birds. The disease caused is often referred to as avian or bird flu. H5N1 occasionally also attacks people, causing a very virulent form of influenza. Influenza caused by this virus kills about 60% of people contracting it. Half of those dying are otherwise healthy young adults or children. Find more information at http://www.pandemicflu.gov/.
So far, H5N1 has not mutated to the point where human-to-human contagion is easily sustained. However, a number of cases are documented in which individuals have transmitted disease to caretakers or family members. Again, the current case fatality rate is about 60%. Scientists believe that a high likelihood exists that the virus causing this disease will mutate at some point and become easily transmissible, causing a pandemic that will cause untold misery throughout the world.No one knows how high a pandemic case fatality rate will be. Scientists expect it to be much less than 60%. In nearly all simulations, they are using values of 2.5% or less. But these are just guesses.
Tamiflu and other antiviral drugs are not expected to be able to stop the next pandemic. These drugs may reduce the impact of the disease, but they will not cure it or prevent it. Only a small fraction of the population will have access to antivirals. Creating an effective vaccine can be done only after a virus mutates and a pandemic starts. Vaccine development may take up to six months. By that time, many millions may have died. Access to any vaccine will be limited. Social chaos is predicted.
PRACTICES: Several things can be done, but only if proper preparations are made. These involve personal hygiene, social distancing (e.g., keeping apart from people; or sequestering within homes), isolation of the ill, and 10-day quarantining of apparently healthy people exposed to potentially ill people before the apparently healthy people can associate again with others. Eight fact sheets from the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints can help us plan and prepare:http://providentliving.org/pfw/multimedia/files/pfw/pdf/113475_PandemicPlanningPDFsCombined_pdf.pdf
Photo Credits:
Patients during pandemic influenza of 1918: http://1918.pandemicflu.gov/pics/photos/Iowa_Flu2.jpg
Mother Earth: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002600/a002682/apollo17_earth_web.jpg
H5N1 virus: www.nih.gov/news/research_matters/october2006/images/1918flu_l.jpg
Tamiflu molecular structure: www.ehponline.org/members/2006/9574/fig1.jpg
Hand hygiene: www.cdc.gov/Features/HandFootMouthDisease/HandFootMouthDisease_370px.jpg
